Oil plunges to 7-week low ahead of US Fed verdict; Brent dips to $83/bbl in oversold territory

Brent futures fell $2.52, or 2.9 per cent, to $83.81 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $2.58, or 2.1 per cent, to $79.35. This put both benchmarks on track to close at their lowest levels since March 12, 2024 and also pushed both into technically oversold territory for the first time since December 2023. Coming to domestic prices, crude oil futures traded 3.16 per cent lower at ₹6,622 per barrel on the multi commodity exchange (MCX).

What’s dragging crude oil prices?

-In other energy markets, US diesel futures were on track to close at their lowest since July 2023, while US gasoline was on track to drop to a seven-week low. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 7.3 million barrels of crude into stockpiles during the week ended April 26.

-That compares with the 1.1 million barrel withdrawal analysts forecast in a StuffsEarth poll and the 4.9 million barrel increase shown in data from the industry group American Petroleum Institute (API). In addition to the increase in crude stockpiles, EIA also reported 0.3-million barrel build in gasoline inventories. Analysts expected gasoline stocks would decline by 1.1 million barrels.

-In the Middle East, expectations that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas could be in sight have grown following a renewed push by the US and Egypt, even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to go ahead with a long-promised assault on Rafah.

-US Federal Reserve officials will conclude their latest two-day policy meeting on Wednesday with a new statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that could give a clearer sense of how recent disappointing inflation readings have changed the expectation for interest rate cuts this year.

-Lower interest rates would reduce borrowing costs and could spur economic growth and demand for oil. Analysts forecast that the Fed is almost certain to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate steady at the current 5.25 per cent-5.5 per cent range, where it has been since July 2023.

-The Fed started hiking interest rates in March 2022 to fight inflation. Another factor that could delay a Fed decision to cut rates was data showing that US private payrolls increased more than expected in April, suggesting that the labor market maintained its momentum early in the second quarter.

-Also weighing on crude prices was the stronger US dollar, which could cut demand for oil by making the fuel more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The dollar was close to its highest level since November after data this week showed more signs of inflationary pressure in the US economy.

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Published: 01 May 2024, 10:48 PM IST