Funds open 2025 with most bullish CBOT corn view in two years -Braun

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for StuffsEarth.)

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Jan 6 (StuffsEarth) – Speculators forged all-time bearish bets in Chicago corn midway through 2024, though they are entering 2025 on a completely different – and optimistic – note.

However, they hold firmly pessimistic views across U.S. wheat, soybean and soybean product futures.

In the week ended Dec. 31, money managers boosted their net long position in CBOT corn futures and options to 228,806 contracts from 160,947 a week earlier, marking funds’ most bullish stance since February 2023.

That move consisted of both new longs and short covering, though the former was more prominent. Most-active CBOT corn had posted 2.2% gains during the four-day trading week.

Most-active corn futures ended 2024 up 19% from the year’s lowest levels in late August, and those lows came just weeks after funds’ record net short.

CBOT March corn on Monday hit the highest levels since June and traded above relevant moving averages, including the 20-day and 200-day. Monday’s settle of $4.57-3/4 per bushel is basically even with the year-ago price.

While funds’ recent bullishness in corn is strongly tied to a demand increase, demand has been somewhat of a concern for soybeans. Top soybean buyer China has not been as active in the market as might be expected given the plentiful nature of global supplies.

However, dry weather in top soybean meal exporter Argentina sparked a round of short covering in soybeans and meal during the week ended Dec. 31. That corresponded with futures jumps of 3% and 5%, respectively.

Money managers that week slashed what had been a record net short of 96,371 CBOT soybean meal futures and options contracts down to 64,942 that week, all on short covering.

They also cut their net short in CBOT soybean futures and options to an 11-week low of 42,447 contracts from 67,883 a week earlier. Still, that marked funds’ most bearish year-end soybean view in seven years.

Contrary to beans and meal, money managers added gross shorts in CBOT soybean oil futures and options during the week, lifting their net short to a 15-week high of 28,576 contracts, up about 9,000 on the week.

Funds’ CBOT wheat stance is also their most bearish end to a year in seven years, though they trimmed their net short through Dec. 31 to 86,762 futures and options contracts from 95,009 in the prior week, which was an eight-month high.

CBOT wheat futures have recently battled a strengthening in the U.S. dollar to two-year highs, making U.S. exports less attractive to overseas buyers. U.S. winter wheat planting data will hit the market on Friday, the first piece of the upcoming 2025-26 marketing year.

Friday’s data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture will also feature U.S. corn and soybean production, U.S. quarterly grain stocks and other U.S. and global supply and demand updates for 2024-25.

All eyes will be on these reports this week, though market participants should stay in tune with weather models for Argentina as Monday’s runs suggested the grain belt could stay warm and dry through mid-month. Karen Braun is a market analyst for StuffsEarth. Views expressed above are her own.

(Writing by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew Lewis)