Stock market outlook: After climbing to a new peak in the week gone by, frontline indices of the Indian stock market failed to sustain at higher levels, and they witnessed heavy correction immediately after touching the new peaks. This might have put doubts into the minds of stock investors about whether the Indian stock market has topped out and whether bears are ready to take centre stage in the subsequent few sessions. According to stock market experts, in the post-COVID period, Indian markets are witnessing three bull and bear markets. We are in the second bull market, as the first was seen in the pre-budget rally when the Nifty 50 index touched the psychological 22,000 peak. Nifty missed the 23,000 mark on Friday last week in the second bull trend. They said that in the next bull trend expected this year ahead of Diwali 2024, we can expect the 50-stock index to touch or come close to the 24,000 mark.
So, based on this post-Covid performance, we expect the 50-stock index to touch the 25,000 mark by the end of the current financial year or by February to March 2025. On the BSE Sensex, they said that the 30-stock index rose twice the appreciation logged by the 50-stock index. So, by the end of March 2025, we can expect the BSE Sensex to touch 80,000 levels. So, Sensex should touch one lakh in the next two to three years after the end of the current financial year or by the end of FY28.
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Bull vs bear: What stock market trend suggests?
Elucidating the Indian stock market trends in the post-COVID period, Sumeet Bagadia, a seasoned Executive Director at Choice Broking, confidently stated, “The Indian stock market has been experiencing three bull trends on an average in the post-COVID period. We are currently in the second bull trend as the market has already factored in the Lok Sabha election results, as most pre-poll surveys predict BJP-led NDA victory in Lok Sabha polls 2024. In the first bull trend, we witnessed Nifty touching 22,000, while in the second bull trend, Nifty missed touching 23,000 on Friday last week. So, in the next bull trend, which is expected ahead of Diwali 2024, we can expect the Nifty 50 index to touch or come close to the 24,000 level. In FY25, we can anticipate one more rally on Dalal Street ahead of the Budget 2025. So, by the end of the current financial year, we can expect the Nifty 50 index to touch the 25,000 level.”
When will Sensex touch one lakh landmark?
Echoing Sumeet Bagadia’s views, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager — Technical Research, said, “Normally, the BSE Sensex rises thrice of the rally registered by the Nifty 50 index in a given time horizon. We expect the 50-stock index to rise 3000 points in one year, whereas the 30-stock index Sensex will rise twice, meaning nearly 6,000 points. In the current year, the Nifty 50 index has already risen around 700 points and hence next 1300 points rise is expected by the end of 2024. So, Nifty is expected to touch the 24,000 mark by the end of December 2024, and the Sensex may touch the 78,000 to 78,500 mark in the current year.”
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Anand Rathi predicts that the BSE Sensex is likely to reach the significant ‘one lakh landmark’ by the end of FY28 or in the January to March 2029 quarter. This ‘one lakh landmark’ refers to the Sensex index reaching a value of 100,000, which is a significant milestone in the Indian stock market.
Wealth management tips
Unveiling a strategy for constructing a stock portfolio that can facilitate wealth creation, Sandeep Pandey, Founder of Basav Capital, expressed, “Over the past two years, small-cap and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks. However, we are now witnessing large-cap stocks displaying signs of upward movement in the last few quarters. This signifies that the opportunity to generate wealth from the stock market is not waning, but rather, the time for wealth compounding is on the horizon. The FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is projected to shift from the small-cap and mid-cap segment to the large-cap segment. It is advisable to identify quality stocks from the small and mid-cap segments that can outperform the Nifty and Sensex in the coming years to create wealth. My recommendation for long-term investors is to consider debt-free companies with a track record of delivering positive quarterly results. A straightforward method to identify your value pick is to check the forward PE and last five years CAGR of the stock you are considering for your portfolio.”
Disclaim: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.
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Published: 04 May 2024, 11:26 AM IST
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