₹940 to ₹1,610: JM Financial sees a 71% upside in PVR Inox share price. Here’s why the brokerage is bullish on the stock

PVR Inox share price has been under strong pressure over the last year. As of 11 March close, the stock has plunged 32 per cent in the last one year. However, brokerage firm JM Financial is bullish about the stock and expects a 71 per cent upside in the stock in the next one year.

On Wednesday, March 12, PVR Inox share price fell over 3 per cent in intraday trade, extending losses to the fourth consecutive session. Shares of the company hit their 52-week high of ₹1,748.25 on September 27 last year and have been on a downward trajectory since then. They hit their 52-week lows of ₹871 on February 28 this year.

JM Financial maintains buy call, sees a 71% upside potential

JM Financial has maintained a buy call on PVR Inox, pegging the target price at ₹1,610. This implies a 71.4 per cent upside from the stock’s March 11 close of ₹939.55.

The brokerage firm highlighted that in its FY26 Budget, the Karnataka government has proposed a state-wide cap of ₹200 on movie ticket prices across cinemas.

However, according to the brokerage firm, the previous such attempts were applicable only to mainstream screens, while gold class seats and special format screens—IMAX and 4Dx—were exempted. PVR-INOX’s dearer tickets are for these special formats.

Moreover, such attempts faced legal hurdles earlier and never got officially implemented.

“Besides Karnataka, there are precedences – Andhra Pradesh High Court (Aug 2022) and Supreme Court (Chandrachud and Narsimha bench, Jan 2023) – where courts struck down attempts to regulate movie ticket prices. It is, therefore, not a given that such caps will see the light of day,” said JM Financial.

JM Financial said that even though the proposed price cap gets enforced, the impact on PVR-Inox will be minuscule.

“PVR-Inox has 215 or 12 per cent of its screens in Karnataka. However, we believe that nearly 20 per cent of these screens are in special format. Going by 2017 precedence, these will likely be exempted,” said JM Financial.

“Assuming average ticket price (ATP) ( ₹252 gross ATP) and occupancy levels (nearly 24 per cent) for the balance screens to be same as company average, the full year revenue impact of price-cap would be ₹19.2 crore or 0.28 per cent of revenues. The impact on EBITDA will be even lower,” JM Financial said.

JM Financial believes that encouraging GBOC (gross box office collection) and a promising pipeline far outweigh the price cap’s impact on PVR Inox.

A lack of content, pipeline and occupancies have pressured the stock price. However, these are improving now.

“India’s GBOC for January and February 2025 was ₹2,040 crore. In addition, with a strong line-up for March (for example, Sikandar) and nearly ₹180 crore box office collection for Chhaava and Dragon in March, we believe Q4FY25 BOC could get closer to Q3FY25’s record GBOC of ₹3,980 crore. The content line-up for the rest of CY25 is promising, too. At 9 times FY26E EV/EBITDA (pre-Ind AS), we find current levels attractive,” said JM Financial.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.